It looks a bit like field rotation.
It does, doesn't it? However a stack of unregistered images is rock solid...so that makes that unlikely, IMO. (Heh, just saw Geoff's suggestion...yep, concur)
How accurate is your polar aligment?
Depends on who you ask.
PHD2's Drift Aligner said < 2' of PA error in both axes...and that seemed pretty reasonable, as there was minimal dec drift watching the trend lines. PHDLab, however, estimated over a degree of PA error from the guidelog. but, frankly, I've got next to no confidence in that estimate. FWIW, an early-evening test frame of 180" with no guiding showed no trailing at all...so I'm feeling like the alignment was pretty close.
How many pixels are you dithering?
Don't know. SGP speaks in terms of "Small" or "High" and so on :
I was using "High" last night. SGP's manual gives no guidance on this setting, and PHD2's Dither amount is applicable only to manual movement.
Having said all of that, from running Blink on all my frames, I'd say it was 2-3 pixels.
There's some drift and elongation in the final 3-4 frames of the 15 frame set...despite no changes to the guide graph. I would, of course, immediately suspect differential flex, except I'm using an OAG, so that seems...unlikely to say the least. *heh* The drift/elongation DOES occur just before, during, and after the meridian (I was guiding through it, did no flip) so I suspect the two are related...but I'm not sure how or why at this point.
To be sure, however, removing those frames that drifted resolves the issue...and the further back into the set I cull, the better the result...