I think you are probably right. I went through the subs again, looking for any sort of pattern.
There is none. But there is, as you wold expect, colored (random) noise.
But I suspect that there is some coherence in this noise when averaged over multiple frames.
Unfortunately, I am doing this as cheaply as possible, which means an external intervalometer, PHD2 running on a R-PI4 and a SGP tracker.
PHD2 can talk to the SGP (obviously...), but it has not communication with the intervalometer to sync random movements, and doing those during an exposure sort of defeats the whole point of guiding ...
This wasn't quite so bad before now I think about it. The SGP has some significant periodic variance @ 300mm. That forced me to keep the exposures short, and probably acted to to minimize this effect.
Rather than just setting things up and leaving it to run for 40 exposures, I suppose I could do four runs of 10, with a bit of movement between, and re-syncing PHD2.